Reading the text below from The Economist, the EIU predicts 6% growth, the Chinese Government growth target is 8%, Aka's prediction is 2% why- last quarter it only grew 2% - and things are going to get worse before they get better.
The outlook for China's economy continues to darken with the publication of each new statistical indicator. According to the latest data, economic growth slowed to 6.8% in the year to the fourth quarter of 2008, down from 9% in the third quarter and half its 13% pace in 2007. Although real GDP growth of 6.8% may still sound pretty robust, it was China's lowest rate of growth since the fourth quarter of 2001 and implied that growth on an annualised quarter-on-quarter basis was around just 2%. Other indicators also point to a significant downturn in economic activity. Industrial production grew by only 5.7% in the 12 months to December, compared with an 18% pace in late 2007. And the OECD’s leading indicator of economic activity in China has fallen to its lowest level in its 26-year history, lower even than during the slump in 1989—the year of the Tiananmen Square massacre.
Despite the increasingly gloomy data from China, the Economist Intelligence Unit has maintained a forecast of 6% growth in 2009. This, however, would be the slowest rate of growth since 1990, and would represent a hard landing for the Chinese economy. It would also be significantly below the government's own growth target of 8%, which according to an often-cited theory is what the economy needs to grow by to prevent rising unemployment and, in turn, social unrest
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